SKN | Florida Housing Supply Improves in Select Markets, but Affordability Gaps Continue to Shape Demand

Florida’s housing market showed measurable progress over the past year as several major metropolitan areas recorded higher shares of affordable listings and modest reductions in housing shortages. According to Zillow, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville all improved their affordability metrics between May 2025 and May 2026, although only Miami and Jacksonville reduced their estimated housing deficits. The figures suggest that while additional inventory is easing pressure in some markets, structural affordability challenges remain, particularly as insurance costs, financing expenses, and condominium ownership obligations continue to influence purchasing decisions.

The latest data highlights an important shift in Florida’s residential market. Supply is gradually improving, but the gains remain uneven across regions, demonstrating that increasing inventory alone does not automatically resolve long-standing housing shortages or improve affordability for every household.

The Public Assumption: More Listings Mean the Housing Problem Is Being Solved

The common assumption is that an increase in available housing listings signals a broad improvement in affordability and accessibility. As inventory rises, many expect home prices to moderate while buyers regain negotiating power after several years of constrained supply.

However, housing affordability depends on far more than the number of homes available for sale. Mortgage rates, insurance premiums, property taxes, homeowners association fees, and household income all influence whether additional listings actually become financially accessible. A market can experience improving inventory while remaining difficult for many middle-income buyers.

The Economic Breakdown: Supply Is Improving Faster Than Affordability

Zillow reported that every major Florida metro included in its study experienced an increase in the share of listings considered affordable between May 2025 and May 2026. Jacksonville recorded the highest affordable share at 33.3%, increasing from 29.3%. Tampa improved to 32.3% from 27.1%, Miami rose to 28% from 24.1%, and Orlando increased to 27.6% from 23.1%. Zillow defines an affordable listing as one in which a household earning the area’s median income spends no more than 30% of its income on monthly mortgage payments, assuming a 20% down payment.

Housing supply also showed mixed progress. Miami reduced its estimated housing shortage by 3,642 homes to 68,324 units, while Jacksonville narrowed its deficit by 2,915 homes to 10,328 units. In contrast, Orlando’s shortage expanded by approximately 6,000 homes to 30,402, while Tampa’s deficit increased by 678 homes to 33,878.

Nationally, Zillow estimated the U.S. housing deficit remained close to 4.7 million homes during 2024, increasing by only about 43,000 units. Approximately 1.4 million housing units were completed during the year, supported by the strongest multifamily construction activity in five decades. The figures suggest that supply growth is beginning to keep pace with demand, although the existing shortage remains substantial.

Market Segmentation: Coastal Markets Face Different Pressures Than Inland Cities

Florida’s housing recovery is far from uniform. Coastal markets such as Miami continue to experience demand driven by international buyers, wealth migration, and limited developable land, supporting relatively strong pricing despite affordability improvements. Inland and northern markets, including Jacksonville and portions of Central Florida, are more influenced by local employment, household formation, and domestic migration patterns.

Property type also shapes market conditions. Condominiums generally provide lower purchase prices than comparable single-family homes, but ownership costs can differ significantly because of association fees, insurance requirements, and shared maintenance obligations. Single-family homes may avoid some association costs while carrying higher purchase prices and insurance premiums depending on location.

The Hidden Picture: Ownership Costs Continue Beyond the Purchase Price

Florida homeowners continue to face some of the nation’s highest insurance premiums. According to the Insurance Information Institute, elevated hurricane exposure, rebuilding costs, and insurer withdrawals have kept insurance expenses well above national averages, directly affecting monthly housing costs.

Condominium ownership has also become more expensive following Florida’s SB 4-D legislation, which requires qualifying condominium associations to complete milestone inspections and adequately fund structural reserves. Many associations have responded by increasing HOA fees or imposing special assessments to comply with the law while addressing deferred maintenance.

These recurring expenses mean that even when purchase prices stabilize or inventory expands, the total cost of ownership may continue rising. Buyers therefore evaluate not only asking prices but also long-term operating expenses, maintenance obligations, insurance, and financing costs when determining affordability.

The Question Ahead

If Florida is gradually closing its housing supply gap, will additional inventory be sufficient to improve affordability, or will rising ownership costs continue to offset the benefits of greater housing availability?